Multiscenario Simulation of Land-Use Change in Hubei Province, China Based on the Markov-FLUS Model

A goal of land change modelers should be to communicate scenarios future that show the variety possible landscapes based on consequences management decisions. This study employs Markov-FLUS model simulate land-use changes in Hubei Province multiple consider social, economic, and ecological policies using 18 driving factors, including point-of-interest data. First, was developed validated with historical data from 2000 2020. The then used 2020 2035 four scenarios: natural development, economic priority, protection, cultivated protection. results effectively simulates pattern Province, an overall accuracy 0.93 for use simulation Kappa coefficient FOM index also achieved 0.86 0.139, respectively. In all scenarios, remained primary type 2035, while construction showed increasing trend. However, there were large differences simulated patterns different scenarios. Construction expanded most rapidly priority scenario, it more slowly protection scenario. We designed scenario restrict rapid expansion land. development encroached forests. contrast, forests water areas well-preserved, decrease increase suppressed, resulting a improvement sustainability. Finally, spread curbed. conclusion, applied this has substantial implications effective utilization resources environment Province.